Wk 16 Playoff Picture Tightens as Clinching Scenarios and Injuries Shape NFL Slate

Multiple playoff berths, division titles, and elimination scenarios headline a pivotal Week 16 across the NFL.

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Week 16 arrives with postseason implications spanning nearly every corner of the league, as several teams have the opportunity to clinch playoff spots while others face potential elimination. With injuries mounting and tiebreakers coming into sharper focus, the weekend represents one of the most consequential stretches of the 2025 regular season.

In the AFC, Denver has already secured a playoff berth and the AFC West title, while New England, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh enter Week 16 atop their respective divisions. Buffalo, Los Angeles, and Houston currently occupy wild-card positions, though each remains vulnerable depending on Sunday’s results. Indianapolis and Baltimore remain in contention, with the Ravens holding a forty percent chance to reach the postseason.

The NFL playoff bracket entering Week 16 reflects how narrow the margins have become. In the NFC, Seattle has clinched a playoff spot and leads the NFC West, followed closely by the Rams, who have also secured a berth. Chicago, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay lead their divisions, while San Francisco and Green Bay remain firmly in the wild-card mix. Detroit, Carolina, and Dallas continue to linger on the edge of contention, with Dallas facing elimination with a loss.

NFL Playoff Bracket entering Week 16:

AFC:

1.    Denver Broncos (12-2) (Clinched Playoff Spot, 1^st AFC West)

2.    New England Patriots (11-3) (1^st AFC East)

3.    Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) (1^st AFC South)

4.    Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) (1^st AFC North)

5.    Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) (2^nd AFC West)

6.    Buffalo Bills (10-4) (2^nd AFC East)

7.    Houston Texans (9-5) (2^nd AFC South)

AFC In The Hunt:

8.    Indianapolis Colts (8-6) (3^rd AFC South, 15% chance)

9.    Baltimore Ravens (7-7) (2^nd AFC North, 40% chance)

NFC:

1.    Seattle Seahawks (12-3) (Clinched Playoff Spot, 1^st NFC West)

2.    Chicago Bears (10-4) (1^st NFC North)

3.    Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) (1^st NFC East)

4.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) (1^st NFC South)

5.    Los Angeles Rams (11-4) (Clinched Playoff Spot, 2^nd NFC West)

6.    San Francisco 49ers (10-4) (3^rd NFC West)

7.    Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) (2^nd NFC North)

NFC In The Hunt:

8.    Detroit Lions (8-6) (3^rd NFC North, 44% chance)

9.    Carolina Panthers (7-7) (2^nd NFC South, 40% chance)

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) (2^nd NFC East, 1% chance)

Several matchups carry direct clinching scenarios. Buffalo can secure a playoff berth with a win at Cleveland combined with losses or ties from Indianapolis or Houston, while Myles Garrett enters that game within 1.5 sacks of the single-season NFL record. New England can clinch with a win or tie at Baltimore, though injuries in the Patriots’ defensive backfield remain a concern.

Los Angeles travels to Dallas with a chance to clinch, while the Cowboys sit tenth in the NFC with a one percent playoff probability. Philadelphia can lock up the NFC East on Saturday against Washington, while Chicago and Green Bay meet in a matchup that could send either team into the postseason depending on Detroit’s outcome.

AFC

CLINCHING SCENARIOS

Buffalo Bills (10–4) at Cleveland Browns (3–11)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Buffalo clinches a playoff berth with:

1.     BUF win + IND loss or tie

2.     BUF win + HOU loss or tie

3.     BUF tie + IND loss

4.     BUF tie + HOU loss

Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett has a chance to make history. Garrett leads the NFL with 21.5 sacks and is 1.5 away from the single-season record held by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.

New England Patriots (11–3) at Baltimore Ravens (7–7)
Sunday night, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

New England clinches a playoff berth with:

1.     NE win or tie

2.     IND loss or tie

3.     HOU loss or tie

Patriots key defensive injuries:


• LB Christian Elliss (illness) — Limited


• LB Harold Landry (knee) — DNP


• LB Robert Spillane (ankle) — DNP


• CB Carlton Davis (hip) — DNP


• CB Marcus Jones (knee) — DNP

Los Angeles Chargers (10–4) at Dallas Cowboys (6–7–1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Chargers clinch a playoff berth with:

1.     LAC win + IND loss or tie

2.     LAC win + HOU loss or tie

3.     LAC tie + IND loss

4.     LAC tie + IND tie + HOU loss

Chargers WR injuries:


• WR Derius Davis (ankle) — DNP


• WR Tre’ Harris (hip) — Limited


• WR Quentin Johnston (groin) — Limited

Dallas would be eliminated with a loss and is dealing with multiple CB injuries:


• CB DaRon Bland (foot) — DNP


• CB Josh Butler (knee) — Limited (21-day IR window)


• CB Trevon Diggs (knee/hip) — Limited (21-day IR window)


• CB Shavon Revel Jr. (knee) — Limited

NFC Scenarios

Philadelphia Eagles (9–5) at Washington Commanders (4–10)
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET (FOX)

Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with:

1.     PHI win

2.     DAL loss

3.     PHI tie + DAL tie

Eagles injuries:


• RT Lane Johnson (foot) — Out


• DT Jalen Carter (shoulders) — Out

Chicago Bears (10–4) vs. Green Bay Packers (9–4–1)
Saturday night, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX)

Chicago clinches a playoff berth with:

1.     CHI win + DET loss or tie

2.     CHI tie + DET loss

Bears key injuries:


• WR Luther Burden III (ankle) — Out


• WR Rome Odunze (foot) — DNP

Green Bay clinches a playoff berth with:

1.     GB win + DET loss or tie

2.     GB tie + DET loss

Packers RB injuries:


• RB Chris Brooks (chest) — Questionable


• RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle) — Questionable


• RB MarShawn Lloyd (calf/hamstring) — Out

Every result matters from here on out — seeding, eliminations, and record races are all in play.Which clinching scenario matters most this weekend, and which injury could change the playoff picture? Let’s Talk About It!